A round way ticket to space please… The feasibility of space tourism for the ´ordinary tourist´

The tourism industry of today is subject to drastic changes in demand patterns. Tourists are shifting their consumption habits from passive fun to active learning. The twenty-first century innovation of the tourism business is characterised by the experience economy; the new tourist is increasingly wishing to stimulate and enhance its knowledge through experiences (Buhalis & Costa, 2006). The recent development of space tourism perfectly anticipates to these consumer trends. By space tourism is meant ordinary members of the public buying tickets to travel to space and back (Space Future, 2009, Tourism section, para.1). The purpose of this article is to form a critical opinion on the statement that the demand for space tourism is sufficiently present in order to make it a successful business by 2021.

The mysteries of space have romanced men and women for decades, but up until recently, space was seen as a destination solely reachable for scientists and aviation experts (Manzanares, 2009). Although space tourism nowadays still receives a lot of criticism for being a too futuristic concept, over the past few years it has become clear that there is a growing interest in space tourism, both on the demand as well as on the supply side. More than $1 billion has already been invested in the space tourism industry (The Associated Press, 2009), Hilton has a claim to create hotels on the Moon and Mars and a Space Island Project expects receiving 20,000 tourists on their “space island” by 2020 (Ciccarelli & DeMicco, 2008). These are just a few examples that illustrate the growing interest of the supply side for the space tourism industry.

Since 2001, Space Adventures Ltd. has sent eight tourists into space, reportedly for $20 million or more per seat (Manzanares, 2009). Only recently, October 11^th, the Canadian Guy Laliberte returned to earth after a two-week holiday in space (Solovyov, 2009). Virgin Galactic, a division of Virgin Group Ltd., has already sold over 300 tickets for not-yet-scheduled sub orbital flights (Phillips, 2009). It is expected that the base service price ($200.000) will be maintained for the first three years of service, and then decline to $50.000 by 2021 (Ziliotto, 2009).

Although different market surveys forecasted a considerable demand for space tourism, it seems that the technology level lags behind the market opportunities, which will affect the feasibility of the whole project. Moreover, it is hard to predict demand for products and services in radically new industries because there are no historical records present that can be used to estimate future demand (Crouch et al., 2008). Potential space tourism consumers currently know very little about space tourism and the experiences that may emerge in the future. In my opinion, such lack of consumer knowledge and information can lead to unreliable market demand outcomes in research studies. Further ongoing research into space tourism consumer choice behaviour is bound to become a critical, continuous need in the years ahead.

Another reason why I have my doubts on the feasibility of this concept, at least in terms of the forecasted period, is that the short history of the space tourism industry is beset with delays and setbacks. During the 1960s and 1970s, there was forecasted that the general public would already be travelling into space in masses by the end of the 20^th century (Crouch et al., 2008). Clearly this has been an overly optimistic expectation. I wonder if the expected 13,000 passengers by 2021 would turn out to be an overly optimistic expectation as well. Several deadlines have already been announced for the first commercial flight and none of them have been met so far.

To conclude, although the positive signs on both the supply and demand side are present, I remain sceptic about the concept of space tourism for the ordinary tourist. The few private citizens flying to space now are paving the way and I do believe that others will follow in greater numbers. However, $50.000 is still exceeding the ordinary tourist budget by far. I guess the future will tell us when the ordinary tourists indeed get a chance to take their families on a holiday in space, if we live long enough to experience that..

References:

Buhalis, D. & Costa, C. (2006). Tourism Management Dynamics – trends, management and tools. Oxford: Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann.

Ciccarelli, S. & DeMicco, F.J. (2008). Outer Space as a New Frontier for Hospitality and Tourism [Electronic version]. Hosteur, 17 (2), 15-22.

Crouch, G.I., Devinney, T.M., Louviere, J.J. & Islam, T. (2008). Modelling consumer choice behaviour in space tourism [Electronic version]. Tourism Management, 30, 441-454.

Manzanares, M.J. (2009, August 18). Would you vacation in space? Fly Away Cafe. Retrieved October 14, 2009, from LexisNexis database.

Phillips, Z. (2009, July 29). Insurance coverage on the final frontier; space tourism a giant leap for insurers. Business Insurance. Retrieved October 14, 2009, from LexisNexis database.

Solovyov, D. (2009, October 14). Circus tycoon enjoys ride of a lifetime. Calgary Sun. Retrieved October 16, 2009, from LexisNexis database.

Space Future (2009). Tourism. Retrieved October 14, 2009, from http://www.spacefuture.com/tourism/introduction.shtml

The Associated Press (2009, October 3). Space Tourism Yet to Fly, 5 Years Sine 1^st Flight. The New        York Times. Retrieved October 16, 2009, from http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/10/03/us/AP-US-Space-Tourism.html?_r=2&scp=4&sq=tourism&st=cse

Ziliotto, V. (2009, August 28). Relevance of the futron/zogby survey conclusions to the current space tourism industry. Acta Astronautica. Retrieved October 14, 2009, from Hospitality & Tourism Complete database.